MLP Playoff Guide for Every Team Heading into the Final Week
There is one event left in the Major League Pickleball (MLP) regular season and there is a ton on the line at the Amway MLP Orlando event.
Eight teams have already finished their regular season, and twelve teams will be playing in Orlando.
Current Standings
Playoff Format
The top 12 teams make the playoffs, with the top four seeds earning a first round bye. The first playoff event is in Dallas at Picklr Universe from August 6 - 9. The second round of the playoffs is in Newport Beach the following week. The semis and finals will be played in New York City two weeks following Newport.
One of the most unique parts of the MLP playoff format is the top seeds get to pick their opponent. For example, the five seed will be the highest seed in the first round of the playoffs, and they will get to choose their opponent from the 9-12 seeds. Then the six seed chooses, and so on. The same thing happens in all three rounds of the playoffs.
Note on tiebreakers: If teams are tied in regular season standings points, the tiebreaker is first match win % and then game win %
Categories of Teams
There are seven different categories of teams, in my mind:
- Teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs
- Teams on the cusp of elimination
- Teams fighting for a playoff spot
- Teams probably in
- Teams who have clinched a playoff spot
- Teams fighting for a first round bye
- Teams fighting for the top overall seed
NOTE: I am using 31 points as the playoff cut off line for the last team to make it into the playoffs - the real number of points may differ. Also, the percentage chance of making the playoffs is an estimation by me - there is no mathematical equation for this.
Teams that are eliminated from the playoffs
Utah Black Diamonds - 17 points in five events
Florida Smash - 15 points in five events
Bay Area Breakers - 15 points in five events
Teams on the cusp of elimination
Carolina Hogs - 2 points in 4 events - need to win MLP Orlando in order to have a chance at making playoffs and even that is slim. As soon as they lose their first match they will be eliminated from the playoffs. Playoff chances: <1%.
Phoenix Flames - 2 points in 4 events - See above notes for Carolina - they all apply the same to the Flames. Playoff chances: <1%.
Teams fighting for a playoff spot
Miami Pickleball Club - 15th in points per event - 20 points in 4 events - Need 11 points from MLP Orlando, so need to finish second in their pool AND a Super Sunday win - they play Brooklyn, Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, & St. Louis. Playoff chances: 10%.
Orlando Squeeze - 14th in points per event - 25 points in 4 events - No longer have Fed and Milly, so starters might be Jack Sock, Greg Dow, Alex Walker, and Lacy Schneemann - need six points to 31, and they play Brooklyn, Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, and St. Louis. Need to finish fourth or better AND win on Super Sunday. Playoff chances: 10%.
Las Vegas Night Owls - 13th in points per event - 26 points in 4 events - Only earned 4 points in MLP Chicago - need five points to hit 31 - play Brooklyn, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and St. Louis and need to finish fourth or better and win on Super Sunday (if they finish fourth in the pool). Playoff chances: 15%.
Chicago Slice - 12th in points per event - 27 points in 4 events - Had a great event in Chicago - needs 4 points to hit 31 - they play California, Carolina, LA, New Jersey, and Palm Beach. Must finish fourth in the group to hit 31 in a tough group. Playoff chances: 50%.
California Black Bears - 11th in points per event - 30 points in 4 events - Had a great event in Chicago AND beat the Slice in the third place event. They play Chicago, Carolina, LA, New Jersey, and Palm Beach. Need 1 point to hit the number of 31. Must finish fifth or better in the pool in order to hit 31 points. Playoff chances: 60%.
Teams probably in the playoffs
SoCal Hard 8s - 10th in points per event - 34 points in 5 events - Really had a tough situation with Armaan Bhatia and his right knee in MLP Chicago - I doubt he is able to play in the playoffs, which significantly reduces their chances, but the 34 points should be enough to squeek in. Playoff chances: 95%.
Atlanta Bouncers - 9th place in points per event - 36 points in 5 events - Lost the 3v3 contest to Miami, and have been very up and down all year. The 36 points are nearly a lock to make the playoffs - I think it impossible for them to miss the playoffs. If they finish in the 9-12 range, they might be the last team picked in the first round of the playoffs because they could get hot. Playoff chances: 99%.
Palm Beach Royals - 7th place in points per event - 44 points in 4 events - Technically the Royals have not clinched a playoff spot, but it is only a matter of time. Palm Beach is going to want to finish as high as they can, but realistically, they are going to finish in 7th place, with the gap between 7th and 6th too much to overcome. Playoff chances: >99%.
Teams who have clinched a playoff spot
Texas Ranchers - 8th place in points per event - 48 points in 5 events - The Ranchers narrowly missed a big weekend in Chicago, having to settle for 7th place overall at that event. The Ranchers will be dangerous in the playoffs and will likely end up in the 8th spot, playing whoever is left after five, six, and seven choose. Playoff chances: 100%.
Dallas Flash - 6th place in points per event - 72 points in 5 events - The Flash had the Austin event where they didn’t earn a single point, but in their last two events they have finished first twice in a row. This team is poised for a deep playoff run with JW Johnson playing some of his best pickleball right now. The likelihood is Dallas will finish 6th and will have the second choice of opponent in the first round of the playoffs. Playoff chances: 100%.
Teams fighting for a first round bye
Brooklyn Pickleball Team - 5th place in points per event - 66 points in 4 events - Brooklyn has now fininshed second in their last two events, despite their injuries. They need 18 points to overtake Columbus, and lock in a top four spot. Brooklyn needs to finish 1st in their pool to guarantee they leapfrog the Sliders. Their pool consists of Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and St. Louis. Chances of a first round bye: 50%.
Columbus Sliders - 4th place in points per event - 83 points in 5 events - Columbus is praying either LA or Brooklyn has a poor showing in Orlando. If LA finishes worse than second or Brooklyn finishes worse than first, Columbus will earn that first round bye. Chances of first round bye: 70%.
LA Mad Drops - 3rd place in points per event - 71 points in 4 events - LA needs 13 points to pull ahead of Columbus in points (12 points would have them tied and the match win % is so close, they will want to get 13). LA plays California, Carolina, Chicago, New Jersey, and Palm Beach. We will see Connor Garnett in an LA uniform for the first time in MLP Orlando. In order to guarantee a first round by they need to finish at least second in the pool and then win the 2v2 matchup on Sunday. Chances of first round bye: 80%.
Teams fighting for the top overall seed
New Jersey 5s - Tied for 1st place in points per event - 93 points in 4 events - New Jersey has one event to work Federico Staksrud in to their roster before the playoffs. They have already pretty much locked up a first round bye, but they are looking for the #1 overall seed. New Jersey plays Carolina, California, Chicago, LA, and Palm Beach - they are really looking to go undefeated in Orlando. Chances of earning the #1 overall seed: 40%.
St. Louis Shock - Tied for 1st place in points per event - 93 points in 4 events - The Shock are in a dead heat with New Jersey and need to beat them in Orlando to earn the #1 overall seed. They play Brooklyn, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, and Phoenix. It could come down to the 1v1 Super Sunday matchup between St. Louis and New Jersey to see who gets the top seed. St. Louis has a bit of a better pool, giving them a better chance at this for me. Chances of earning the #1 overall seed: 60%.
MLP Orlando will be electric with so many matchups with some very tangible consequences. Be on the lookout for a preview article from me on Wednesday.
Love Pickleball? Join 100k+ readers for free weekly tips, news & gear deals.
Subscribe to The Dink
